海底撈(06862.HK)：再拓新品牌推進新業態建設，第二成長曲線可期，維持“買入”評級
機構：天風證券
評級：買入
海底撈旗下新品牌“飯飯林”、“秦小賢”開始正式對外試營業。本次兩個新品牌為內部員工創業項目，門店均位於北京市海淀區知春裏甲 48 號，面積 80 平方米左右。“飯飯林”主打川味蓋飯，“秦小賢”主打陝西風味餐食定位平價工作餐，並融合智能科技助力服務提升。
以內部管理體系優勢為基礎，推動餐飲新業態發展
海底撈人力資源體系、供應鏈優勢、資本實力、智能化技術，可為新業態的發展壯大提供有效支撐。“管理體系”+“新業態”不斷碰撞出新火花。
①獨特的人力制度：新品牌是海底撈消化儲備人才的突破口，內部員工有極強的開發新品牌動力，亦擁有足夠的自主權。海底撈將獨特的人力管理制度移植至新業態中，有望激發員工積極性、提升忠誠度、減少流失率，助力新品牌快速發展。
②完整的供應鏈：上游供應鏈在各類餐飲業態中至關重要，海底撈通過關聯方所搭建的供應鏈體系有助於幫助新業態實現強有力的供應管控。
③強大的資本實力：快速拓店的背後離不開資本的支撐，當新品牌單店模型打磨完善後，海底撈集團強有力的資本支撐，能夠快速實現從1到N的連鎖擴張。
④智能化創新提升經營效率：新科技融入了門店，“飯飯林”支持掃碼點餐；“秦小賢”擁有自動煮米線機、自助結賬機結算。智能數字化技術提升服務品質、節約員工成本、加固競爭壁壘。
火鍋龍頭海底撈，佔據優質餐飲賽道，可複製性強、天花板高，門店還未達到天花板。海底撈擁有獨特的內部管理和激勵機制，關聯企業覆蓋餐飲全產業鏈。管理體系與餐飲新業態碰撞出新火花，智能化和新技術提升客户體驗和公司效率，新品牌推動海底撈二次成長。我們預計公司20-22年淨利潤分別為16億元/47億元/60億元；對應PE分別為159X/54X/42X，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：食品安全問題；門店擴張不達預期的風險；原材料價格上漲的風險；疫情情況惡化風險。
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