德勤：疫情等因素拖累内银利润 料经营水平分化将更明显
德勤今日发布《2020年上半年上市银行分析——中流击水，奋楫者进》报告，涵盖2020年上半年经济及金融形势概览，以及国内上市银行中期业绩综述、财务数据分析和业务观察，比较境内国有大型商业银行、六家代表性股份制银行以及六家境外全球系统重要性银行的业务发展情况、经营模式及监管变化的应对，并通过高风险中小银行风险防范和化解、数码化转型塑造银行韧性竞争力和商业银行「十四五」规划重点三大热话，进一步为国内银行业提供深入的行业洞察，剖析未来发展趋势。
报告指出，2020年上半年，境内银行表现出良好的增长韧性，国有大型商业银行营业收入合计17,356亿元人民币(下同)，平均增幅4.3%，六家股份制银行营收平均增速超过10%(合计5,989亿元)，而境外银行营收受疫情影响波动明显。境内银行拨备前利润平均增速虽有所下降，但仍维持一定增长，境外银行业绩则表现各异。国有大型商业银行和六家股份制银行的合计归属母公司股东净利润分别为5,663亿元和1,684亿元，平均降幅为11.2%和7.6%。境外银行则因受到信用损失计提影响导致归属母公司股东的净利润合计仅1,527亿元，平均下降65.75%，更有多家境外银行归属母公司股东的净利润被腰斩，充分反映新冠疫情、全球经济下行以及境外长期低利率等因素对境外银行冲击非常大。
国有大型银行响应国家号召，加大对实体经济信贷的投放力度，上半年发放贷款与垫款帐面价值合计约72万亿元，六家股份制银行发放贷款与垫款帐面价值合计约21万亿元，境外银行发放贷款与垫款帐面价值则远低於国有四大行。此外，国务院常务会议要求金融系统主动向实体经济减费让利(全年合理让利1.5万亿元)，减低企业融资成本。与此同时，面对资产质素反弹压力，商业银行亦加大了贷款损失准备计提和风险化解力度。在这些因素的综合影响下，境内上市银行上半年净利润明显下滑。
然而，境内银行海外机构(包括海外分行及子公司)於2020年上半年度的利润总额同比显着下滑，平均下降17%。海外地区受新冠疫情、地缘政治等综合影响，整体经营情况亦有所下滑。
德勤认为，当前经济增长放缓，不确定性增强，建议商业银行在「十四五」规划中，充分考虑全球政治和经济环境的不确定性，深入分析区域发展方向和地区经济形势，结合数码经济发展前景，并深入洞察数码化发展浪潮和金融科技发展趋势等关键课题。
逆周期环境将考验商业银行的发展韧性，从外延式发展转型至内涵式发展将是大势所趋，但受限於不同的内外部环境因素，不同银行的经营水平分化将更加明显。韧性将成为未来银行成功的核心质素。全面数码化转型将有助塑造银行韧性竞争力，利用数据分析、智能驱动、灵活架构和降本增效，协助银行预先把握外部风险、迅速判断、灵活变化、强化经营耐力，从而为未来各种不确定性做好准备。
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