《大行報告》花旗下調澳門今明兩年賭收預測各47%及9% 降濠賭股目標價
花旗發表的研究報告指,9月23日內地重啟各省前往澳門的旅客簽證,但自助櫃檯服務仍然暫停,令政府簽證審批的處理空間受限,以廣東為例,461個辦證中心僅220個營業,每日只能處理約7,700宗申請,遠低於平常廣東訪澳的旅客量。在疫情前旅客可以在就近的24小時自助站即時辦理簽證,但現時的做法則令旅客簽證數目暫時受限,同時亦影響到訪澳旅客的擴張。
該行最近與代理及中介人討論後,發現他們認為現時經營環境越來越困難,但大部分中介人財務亦穩健,其中一家最近更斥13.4億元購入澳門勵駿(01680.HK)的20.65%權益,但考慮到風險胃納縮細,中介人亦減少向貴賓借貸,從而導致貴賓廳業務復甦較慢。
報告稱,短期澳門面對旅客方面的限制,而在貴賓廳業務上亦存在結構性問題,故該行對今年餘下時間博彩收入增長看法較悲觀,降今年全年賭收預測47%,現時料第四季賭收將按年跌74%,當中貴賓廳按年跌79%,而中場賭收則按年跌71%,假如這些估算屬實,今年全年賭收將按年跌80%,而該行亦將明年博彩收入預測降9%至300億美元,較2019年低約18%。
儘管短期面對困難,但該行仍看好澳門表現,相信假如自助簽證恢復,內地客亦將回到澳門,如果無下一波疫情,估計旅客簽證將在2021年農曆年前完全恢復,而該行對於2021年賭收的估算已反映貴賓廳收入僅回復三分之二,而中場則回復至2019年的92%水平。該行估計賭收組合有改善,加上節省經營開支等的措施將助六大博企在EBITDA層面趕上來,建議趁低買入博彩股,特別是有新產品推出的娛樂場例如是金沙中國(01928.HK)、澳博控股(00880.HK)及銀河娛樂(00027.HK)。花旗並降濠賭股目標價,見另表。
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