光伏概念逆勢走強 港A兩市多股大漲
今日，港股光伏概念逆勢走強，截至發稿板塊漲逾4%。成分股中，福萊特玻璃漲近6%，信義光能漲4.5%，天能動力漲2.6%，保利協鑫能源、洪橋集團、彩虹新能源、超威動力等跟漲。
數據來源：富途牛牛
A股光伏概念亦相當活躍，晶澳科技、恆星科技一度漲停封板，通威股份大漲8%，福萊特漲逾7%，隆基股份漲4.5%，露天煤業、山煤國際等紛紛大漲。
數據來源：富途牛牛
消息面上，近期，國內多晶硅價格行情有所企穩，國內市場價格止漲為主，但硅料目前價格仍居高不下，市場仍處於供不應求的局面，暫無回調跡象。政策方面，市場對“十四五”新能源規劃目標將上調的預期，也催化了光伏板塊的市場表現。
行業表現方面，上半年，光伏板塊上市公司交出了靚麗的“中考”答卷。據Wind數據統計，在A股55家光伏概念上市公司中，有48家公司上半年實現盈利，佔比高達87%。其中，37家公司實現淨利潤同比增長。
從行業格局來講，國內在光伏玻璃環節已經形成少數規模化企業充分競爭的格局。截至2019年12月，國內光伏玻璃企業產能合計25000噸/日，信義光能產能為7800噸/日，佔比31.2％，居全球第一；福萊特產能為5400噸/日，佔比21.6％，居全球第二。
2013年至今，信義光能和福萊特合計產能始終維持在全行業40%以上，預計2020年將超過60%。隨着產能擴張速度快於行業增速，兩大龍頭的市佔率將繼續提升，雙寡頭格局將越來越穩固。
行業發展預期上，中國光伏行業協會祕書長王勃華表示，下半年，在競價、平價、户用等項目驅動下，國內光伏市場將實現恢復性增長，四季度有望迎來“搶裝潮”，行業需求將持續改善。
華創證券點評稱，根據大摩9月8日發佈的報告，預計中國將上調“十四五”可再生能源比例的規劃，預計非化石能源將設定為2020年達到15%，2030年將達到20%。規劃上調將大力推動國內光伏裝機量，基於2025年國內非石化能源比例達到18%以及2030年20%比例測算，預計未來每年光伏新增裝機有望達到55-60GW。
財通證券認為，隨着疫情影響逐步消退，下半年需求逐步釋放，高品質硅料需求提升，多晶硅有望迎來供需反轉，市場價格將迎接向上拐點。預計2020年下半年多晶硅的合理含税價在70元/kg左右，對於具有成本優勢的龍頭企業而言，有望迎來量利齊升的高增長。
安信證券指出，近期產業鏈漲價趨於緩和,國內需求預計三季度淡季不淡，四季度需求旺盛，同時海外需求強勁復甦，內外共振行業景氣向上。
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