三生製藥(01530.HK):賽普汀有望快速放量,業績持續增長,給予“買入”評級,目標價11.28港元
機構:三生製藥
評級:買入
目標價:11.28港元
公司重磅新產品有望快速放量:
公司重磅品種賽普汀於今年6月獲批上市,有望為公司營收貢獻新增量。HER2陽性乳腺癌患者約50萬人,中國市場的空間在百億以上,作為國內首個獲批的HER2單抗,未來2年只有公司、羅氏、復宏漢霖3家,競爭格局良好,預計該峯值有望突破15億元,成為公司重要增量貢獻。今年11月如果以較好的價格進入醫保,將迅速放量增長。
公司研究團隊實力深厚,在研項目儲備豐富:
公司在研產品種類涵蓋腎科、腫瘤、自身免疫及其他、代謝和皮膚疾病五個種類共31種在研產品,其中21種為國家新藥。IL-4抗體已經獲得FDA批准並已經臨牀入組,也獲得NMPA批准臨牀試驗,IL-5抗體在中國開始臨牀入組,PD-1單抗美國一期臨牀試驗完成患者入組並開始中國臨牀入組,其他如抗CD20單抗、IL-17及眼用VEGF是公司在研產品中具有銷售增長潛力的產品。益普賽預充式注射劑能夠提高患者使用公司益賽普系列產品的依存度,提高公司該類產品的市佔率。
現有主要重點產品有望保持增長:公司重點產品包括特比澳、益賽普及重組人促紅素產品益比奧及賽博爾,均為中國內地市場下各生物製藥領域的領先產品,特比澳過去5年複合增長40%,未來還保持快速增長,益賽普價格有壓力,但通過拓展適應症,提升滲透率貢獻利潤,益比奧隨着未來血透的滲透率上升獲得較快增長。蔓迪近三年銷售複合增長65%,預期3年後可達10億。
首次覆蓋,給予買入評級,目標價11.28港元:
我們預計公司2020-2022年EPS分別為0.60、0.70、0.85元,給予公司2021年14.5倍目標PE,對應目標價為11.28港元,較現價有33.02%的上漲空間,給予“買入”評級。
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