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保利協鑫能源(03800.HK):未來被不確定性所籠罩,維持“中性“評級,目標價0.25港元
格隆匯 09-28 09:16

機構:國泰君安

評級:中性

目標價:0.25港元

2020上半年股東淨虧損翻倍至約人民幣20億元,與盈利警告一致。期內急劇攀升的虧損主要是由於:1)因材料均價下滑,光伏材料銷售收入下跌;2)資產減值損失的上升;以及3)以美元計值債務中美元兑人民幣升值產生的匯兑虧損。期內的綜合毛利率為25.2%,同比上升1.7個百分點。光伏材料板塊毛利率轉負並達-4.3%,同比跌5.2個百分點。新能源板塊的毛利率則持平在67.3%。公司目前正在將其所有的硅片生產由多晶產品全部轉為類單晶及單晶產品。

中國於2020上半年的新增光伏裝機容量同比持平至11.52吉瓦。根據中國國家能源局統計,2020上半年國內的新增光伏裝機容量達到了11.52吉瓦,同比升1.1%。國內市場預計將於2020年新增約30吉瓦的光伏裝機容量(我們當前的預測範圍為25吉瓦至35吉瓦)。鑑於2020上半年新增光伏裝機僅為11.5吉瓦,我們預計2020下半年國內對太陽能的投資將顯著加速。太陽能行業的前景依舊充滿希望,特別是中國仍將繼續推動對太陽能的投資。

我們維持“中性”的投資評級以及0.25港元的目標價。公司的前景仍存在較大的不確定性,特別是考慮到光伏材料板塊的盈利能力的弱化以及公司當前龐大的債務。我們的目標價相當於公司0.2倍/0.2倍2020/2021年市淨率。

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