《大行报告》摩通:市场对恒大(03333.HK)债务传闻反应过度 基本情境下料限期可延长
就近日内地网上流传一份文件,指恒大(03333.HK)致函广东省政府,希望协助恒大地产推进回归A股上市,中国恒大昨晚发严正声明指,近日网上流传有关恒大地产重组情况的谣言,相关文件和截图凭空捏造、纯属诽谤。摩根大通昨晚发表中国恒大的债券研究报告,认为市场对上述传闻反应属过度,该行认为若内地政府迫使房产开发商进行去杠杆化以降低系统性风险,但同时阻止内房商筹集资本,此令人费解,并指重组以筹集资本是实现去杠杆化的更快方法。
摩通认认为,恒大若致函广东省政府前,应该事前已进行了充分沟通,并会获得地方政府提供的任何协助。就相关债务战略投资者,据《彭博通讯社》早前报道如果恒大地产未能在2021年1月的最後期限之前获得上市,苏宁将行使权利以取回200亿元人民币的投资,该行指由於家电零售商苏宁正努力偿还自己的债务,若发生此情况,不会感到惊讶。另一个重要的战略投资者山东高速是中国华东地区主要国有企业,监於目前彼此关系和利润分配,该行认为山东高速和其他投资者仍可延长债务期限。
据与投资者达成的条款,该行注意到苏宁并没有硬性条款可以将其股份以现金形式出售。恒大根据经修订协议的回购义务,包括第一是以成本回购股权;第二是将恒大地产股份转让给相关投资者。基本情况预测下,该行估计恒大将与相关投资者达成共同协议延期债务期限。
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