摩根士丹利:鐵礦石價格將回落 因市場將出現供應過剩
彭博新聞社報道,根據摩根士丹利,鑑於淡水河谷出貨量上升且進入第四季度中國鋼鐵產量將放緩,鐵礦石預計將從近期高位進一步回落。
隨着建築活動放緩,中國鋼鐵需求進入冬季通常也會放緩,平均而言,中國第四季度鋼鐵產量較第三季度下降3.3%。該行在大宗商品展望中稱, 明年中國鋼鐵產量增速將放緩至+1%。
該行表示,淡水河谷出貨的持續恢復,加上中國鋼鐵產量略有放緩,預計將使當前緊張的市場從第四季度開始進入過剩狀態。
這將使中國的港口庫存進一步得到補充,但其速度比以前預期的要慢。
鐵礦石第四季度均價料將爲100美元/噸,2021年料爲81美元/ 噸。
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