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復星旅遊文化(01992.HK)2020年中報點評:全球度假村逐漸恢復,海南免税新政受益標的,給予“增持”評級,目標價12.73 港元
格隆匯 09-25 10:05

機構:國泰君安

評級:增持

目標價:12.73 港元

摘要:

投資建議:由於疫情影響,我們下調復星旅遊文化公司 2020-2022 年營業收入分別為 98.71(-14.76)、178.63(-9.72)和 190.02(-12.17)億元,歸母淨利潤分別為-12.13(-13.59)、6.93(-0.03)億元和 8.00(+0.35)億元,對應 EPS 為-0.98、0.56 和 0.65 元,給與 2021 年PE 20X,0.88 元/港元匯率,上調目標價為 11.2 元/12.73 港元。給 予“增持”評級。

總體情況:受疫情影響,2020 年上半年收入 45.27 億元,-50.04%;毛利 14.72 億元,-51.2%,歸母淨利潤虧損 98.99 億元,-281.2%。度假村及旅遊目的地業務收入 31.3 億元,-41.8%;旅遊相關物業銷售及建造服務業務收入 3.6 億元,-46.0%,旅遊休閒服務及解決方案業務收入 235 億元,-42.2%。

度假村業務受疫情影響較大,處於恢復過程中。2020 年上半年,受疫情影響,Club Med 度假村營業額下降 44.31%,其中,1-2 月+7.7%, 3-6 月-83.2%。但疫情得到控制後,7 月已開業度假村入住率恢復至61%,8 月上旬已開放的中國/歐洲度假村入住率分別高達 88%/95%。同時,2022 年底前,計劃開設 5 家度假村,對度假村進行進一步布

局。

海南業務受免税新政影響迅速恢復,下半年有望迎來新發展機遇。 2020 年上半年亞特蘭蒂斯遊客同比下降 44%,實現收入 3.3 億元,同比下降 49.5%。經宣傳推廣,2020 年第二季度收入同比下降 24.9%,降幅明顯見效,同時由於海南免税新政策的進一步落地和海南旅遊的發展,7 月入住率進一步提升至 88.1%(+6.7%)。在疫情結束後,海南業務有望進一步恢復。

風險提示:疫情的不確定性及其造成的持續性影響。

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