香港交易所(00388.HK):盡享兩地發展紅利與區域壟斷權,高分紅標的兼具價值與成長屬性,給予“增持”評級,目標價397.10港元
機構:東方證券
評級:增持
目標價:397.10港元
核心觀點
壟斷性+治理卓越+輕資產,港交所成長前景廣闊。經歷了歷史上幾次的合併,如今的港交所發展成為了集 4 家交易所與 5 家結算公司於一體的龐大的交易所集團。1)通過數次的合併與整合,港交所獲得了對香港地區唯一認可的證券及期貨市場的排他性壟斷經營權。2)董事會高獨董佔比確保公司決策公平而高效,董事具備全面專業知識與技能提升決策的專業性與前瞻性。3)充分受益於壟斷經營權與輕資產模式,香港交易所長久以來維持較高的利潤率水平與利潤空間。2020H 公司 EBITDA 利潤率高達 76.36%。
深耕交易與結算兩大扛鼎主業,開拓滬深港通等全新業務空間。1)公司現貨分部、衍生產品分部、交易後業務分部持續受益於港股市場交投活躍度的提升以及費率穩中有升,其交易費與結算費保持增長趨勢,是公司的主要收入來源,且三部門的 EBITDA 利潤率均處於 80%以上,利潤空間大。2)收購LME 之後,公司拓展其在金屬合約領域的業務,帶來增量交易費與結算費收入。3)滬深港通業務快速發展、MSCI 指數衍生產品創新以及中概股迴歸浪潮,都有望為港交所帶來顯著的業績增量。
ROE 與 EBITDA 利潤率大幅領先可比公司,高分紅價值標的兼具成長性。在全球市值超過 900 億港元的 TOP9 上市交易所集團中,港交所過去五年間(2015-2019 年)平均 ROE 為 23.40%,明顯高於其他交易所的平均ROE12.62%。港交所 2019 年實現 EBITDA 利潤率 75.18%,淨利率 57.57%,遠高於可比公司的平均值 60.98%與 37.57%,排名第一位。公司作為價值投資標的,分紅比例高達 90%,同時其背靠上市公司資源豐富的大陸市場且通過陸港通盡享 A 股市場發展紅利,其成長性較可比公司明顯更勝一籌。
財務預測與投資建議
我們預測公司 2020-2021 年 EPS 分別為 9.02/10.13/11.16 元,當前可比公司20PE 為 31.66 倍,綜合考量給予公司 40%的溢價率,對應 20PE 為 44.0x,對應目標價 397.10 元/股。首次覆蓋,給予公司增持評級。
風險提示
陸港通發展、與 MSCI 指數合作、中概股迴歸不及預期;產品創新低於預期。
高管人事變動帶來的影響;A 股市場發展對港交所全球地位的衝擊。

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