閲文集團(00772.HK)2020年中報點評：短期業績陣痛，長期新徵程開啟，給予“買入”評級
機構：國信證券
評級：買入
公司發佈 2020 年中期業績：
20H1 閲文集團實現收入 32.06 億，同比增長 9.7%，毛利為 17.31 億，同比增長 6.8%，上半年公司淨虧損 33.11 億，去年同期為 3.93 億，主要因公司共計提新麗傳媒商譽減值合計 44.06 億。根據公司披露，2020年上半年，公司 EBITDA 為 5960 萬，經調整 EBITDA 為人民幣 1710 萬。
新管理層上任，有望迎全新發展戰略
公司 2020 年上半年淨利率和毛利率保持相對平穩，銷售費用率有所增加，收入端渠道擴張驅動自有閲讀增長，騰訊自營渠道收入下滑，成本端重視渠道端的擴張，內容端穩定投入，運營數據方面 ARPU 提升明顯，自營渠道部分付費用户轉為免費用户。
我們認為閲文集團的長期邏輯：1）公司歷經陣痛期，新管理層上任，經營層面有望觸底回升；2）免費閲讀和付費閲讀邏輯不衝突，騰訊自營渠道的免費閲讀仍有空間，付費商業化仍有較大運營價值；3）公司有望成騰訊“新文創”戰略的主導者，公司的 IP 處於內容產業鏈金字塔頂端，未來將在騰訊生態中處於關鍵位置；4）IP 和影視製作、動漫等業務仍有較大整合空間，此前整合業務價值未真正挖掘。
投資建議：首次覆蓋，給予“買入”評級
預計公司 20-21 年歸母淨利潤為-27.39/13.86/15.64 億，EPS 為 -2.70/1.36/1.54 元，對應 PE 為-22/44/39x，我們看好公司長期價值，預計騰訊系新管理層上任後，經歷結構性調整的公司有望重新啟程，公司作為數字閲讀領域的龍頭享受超越同行的估值溢價，對比公司歷史估值，給予“買入”評級，數字閲讀 A 股標的建議關注掌閲科技和中文在線。
風險提示
免費閲讀市場的爆發期已過；新管理層管理不及預期；影視製作與 IP 業務整合不及預期；內容市場的政策風險。
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