交銀國際:料直播電商交易規模逾萬億元 關注阿里(9988.HK)、騰訊(0700.HK)等
交銀國際發表報告表示,2020年直播電商交易規模預計達到1.2萬億元(人民幣,下同),按年增長156%,佔網上零售額的9.9%,料2022年進一步達到17.8%。直播將電商成為電商平台的標配,推動電商行業滲透率進一步提升。
報告指,淘寶、快手及抖音2020年直播電商交易規模的目標分別為5000億、2500億及2000億元,預計2020年直播電商對阿里、快手及頭條的收入貢獻分別為160億、130億及100億元。電商平台和短視頻平台帶貨滿足不同消費需求,後者難以在短期內對淘寶直播電商產生衝擊。
交銀國際認為,行業尚在發展早期,刷單、退貨率居高不下的問題需要平台、行業政策規範,該行看好頭部電商平台的店鋪自播及短視頻平台的發展空間,以及幫助商家進行私域流量運營的模式,建議關注阿里巴巴(9988.HK)、快手和騰訊(0700.HK),均予“買入”評級。
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