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匯豐證券:將2020財年博彩總收入預測由跌64%擴至跌80%
格隆匯 09-24 13:11

匯豐證券發表研究報告表示,隨着內地至澳門休閒旅遊簽證逐步放寬,遊客量恢復到3月的水平,但對博彩總收入(GGR)的影響滯後;人均支出較低,鑑於澳門監管和流動性限制濠賭業的復甦速度;自從打擊中介人後,澳門資金的流動性出現“乾旱性,加上疫情令呆壞賬問題出現。中介人表示,一些客户的簽證申請已被拒絕,而有些則被要求聲明旅行的目的,意味著監管風險可能會繼續拖累貴賓廳的恢復。另外,澳門的高端零售運營商表示,客户仍然擔憂健康不願過關,並看到一線城市有許多預訂簽證限額,表明前往澳門的需求不強。

該行表示,將2020財年的博彩總收入預測,由跌64%進一步削至跌80%,認為供需雙方近期都存在不確定性,尤其是來自高端客户,監管影響可能會更持久阻礙GGR的正常化,或直至明年下半年才恢復。但對大眾市場更加樂觀,當玩家準備再次旅行時。

該行預計明年及22年的博彩總收入將上升,但由於基於對貴賓廳更保守假設,與早前預測分別下降了20%和4%,希望2022財年貴賓廳能夠恢復到2016的水平,大眾市場並恢復到略高於2019財年的水平,將在2021及2022財年的EBITDA預測分別下降28%及3%。

匯豐表示,使用正常化EBITDA預測估算,將美高梅中國(2282.HK)目標價由10.8港元下調至9.3港元;永利澳門(1128.HK)目標價由15港元下調至11.8港元,並將評級由買入下調至持有。該行偏好金沙中國(1928.HK),由於其擴展將滿足大眾市場的需求,惟目標價由38港元下調至35港元。

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