摩通:東亞(0023.HK)出售人壽業務對股價或短期正面影響 但未必獲重估
東亞銀行(0023.HK)昨日公告,完成對其業務及資產組合的全面策略性檢討,決定啟動出售全資附屬東亞人壽保險的流程;另外尋求籤訂長期獨家保險分銷協議,將透過該行分銷平台,為特定保險公司分銷保險產品。
摩根大通發表研究報告表示,出售人壽業務看到一次性撤資收益和撤資後特別股息的可能性,或會提振市場情緒對股價有短期正面影響,但認為不太可能導致重新估值,因此維持跑輸大市的評級,並建議持有該股的投資者在近期的漲勢沽售該股;加上銀行策略檢討缺乏如何實現銀行業務運營戰略重點方面的細節,預期在可預見的未來運營的股本回報率有所提高,但當前的宏觀環境下挑戰仍然存在。
報告表示,東亞人壽保險的流程在檢討過程中,但尚未確認任何潛在買家,需要通過監管過程,認為直到2021年,潛在的撤資收益才可能被確認;根據指導估計潛在的撤資收益可能為23億港元,相當於該行對東亞2021財年盈利預測的67%;意味若30%資產剝離收益將以特別股息支付股東,等同股息率2.5%。
該行表示,東亞簽訂長期獨家保險分銷協議,如果涉及大新和泰禾交易結構,有助於增加東亞收費收入,但不太可能構成來自東亞人壽100%收益貢獻,因此未來的經常性利潤可能弊大於利。東亞人壽在2019年及2020年上半年佔東亞税前盈利約17-26%。

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