中金:啤酒消费结构加速升级 建议长期关注华润啤酒和青岛啤酒H股
中金发表研究报告表示,疫情之后,啤酒自饮场景变多,喝少但喝好的趋势更明显,助力结构升级,高端啤酒正快速步入日常。该行维持百威亚太(1876.HK)、青岛啤酒(0168.HK)及珠江啤酒(002461.SZ)跑赢行业评级,短期建议关注燕京啤酒(000729.SZ),长期建议关注华润啤酒(0291.HK)和青岛啤酒。
中金指,若剔除进口啤酒因海外疫情而带来的高端销量的下滑,测算显示龙头公司10元以上超高端市场2020-23年销量年均符合成长率约26%,远快于高端整体9%左右的增速;超高端佔整体销量及收入的比例或从2019年的8%及16.2%,提升至2023年的12%及24.6%。
中金续指,高浓度、低入口、具备口味记忆点的产品正在实现高成长,特定品类或具备成为全国高端大单品的潜力,如精酿品类中的白啤,而线下渠道的垄断性优势在削弱,电商渠道表现突出的品牌或成为高端竞争最终的胜者。
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