中國宏橋(01378.HK):2020年中期業績超出預期,維持“中性“評級,目標價4.95 港元
機構:國泰君安
評級:中性
目標價:4.95 港元
由於財務費用和資產減值損失減少,公司 2020 年中期業績超出市場一致預期和我們的估計。公司收入同比減少 3.6%至人民幣 399.4 億元,股東淨利同比增加 14.3%至人民幣 28.3億元。
由於產能搬遷,我們小幅下調鋁產量假設。我們預計公司在 2020 年生產大約 560-580 萬噸原鋁。我們預計公司的原鋁產能温和增長,且生產穩定。
維持鋁價假設不變。我們預計鋁價將受到全球新冠病毒疫情爆發的沉重打擊。我們預計2020 年鋁價將在 1,400 美元/噸- 1,800 美元/噸之間波動,全年均價在 1,550 美元/噸- 1,650美元/噸之間。
維持生產成本假設不變。基於更低的原材料成本,我們預計公司原鋁的生產成本在 2020年將下降。
上調公司目標價至 4.95 港元,維持“中性”評級。

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