信義玻璃(00868.HK):浮法玻璃利潤率達歷史高位,給予“收集“評級,目標價15.40港元
機構:國泰君安
評級:收集
目標價:15.40港元
在錄得超預期的漲幅後,浮法玻璃價格將於 2020 年第四季度高位震盪。由於全國在產產能創歷史新高且庫存水平開始反彈,我們認為短期內浮法玻璃價格可能面臨一定壓力,但鑑於對 2020 年第四季度強勁需求可持續性的樂觀預期,壓力將較為有限。
儘管純鹼價格急劇上升,浮法玻璃的利潤率於八九月份達歷史高位。基於供給端的恢復和近期純鹼期貨價格的回調,我們認為純鹼對於浮法玻璃的成本壓力將逐步減弱。
我們將 2020/ 2021/ 2022 年的每股盈利預測分別上調 1.8%/ 1.9%/ 2.9%。我們主要 1)根據 2020 年第三季度超預期的提價幅度,略微上調了浮法玻璃的收入和毛利率假設;2)根據人民幣升值的影響,略微下調了汽車玻璃的收入和毛利率假設。
上調目標價至 15.40 港元但下調至“收集”。隨着新生產線在 2020 年逐步投產,我們預計信義玻璃將在各分部快速的產能擴張之下贏得更多市場份額。我們主要基於估值吸引力下降,以及庫存水平反彈對浮法玻璃價格造成的短期壓力而下調了投資評級。我們的目標價對應 12.9 倍/ 11.4 倍/ 11.3 倍的 2020-2022 年市盈率和 2.6 倍的 2020 年市淨率。

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