郭家耀: 外圍轉差港股或下試23,200 紙企漲價潮料利好
正榮金融業務部副總裁郭家耀稱,美股周三(23日)再度急挫,市場憂慮經濟前景,加上科技股再遭拋售,三大指數均錄得顯著跌幅收市。美元表現強勢,美國十年期債息維持於0.67厘水平,油價走勢靠穩,金價顯著受壓。港股預託證券普遍下跌,預料大市早段跟隨低開。內地股市反覆靠穩,滬綜指收市輕微上升,滬深兩市成交額進一步減少,顯示投資者取態審慎。
港股繼續好淡爭持,新經濟類股份表現較佳,金融股則繼續受壓,拖累指數反彈乏力。外圍再現拋售,預計對大市氣氛有負面影響,指數或進一步下試23,200點水平,上方阻力下移至24,000點附近。
另市場分析指目前內地紙企庫存不斷下降,9月下旬逐步進入造紙行業的傳統旺季。文化紙明年相關印刷資料需求將增加,以及明年春季教輔材印刷的需求逐步在今年秋季釋放,而白卡紙需求也隨著消費的復甦、限塑令的影響得到改善,因此旺季漲價有超預期兌現可能。
紙漿行業下游消費包括文化用紙消費、包裝用紙消費、生活用紙消費三個領域。其中,文化用紙主要應用於印刷行業,例如印刷發行書籍課本和雜誌報刊等;包裝用紙主要應用於各行業產成品的包裝需求和快遞物流;生活用紙為最終消費品。從周期上來看,生活用紙全年消費無明顯季節性,文化紙和包裝紙的淡旺季則比較明顯。
近期造紙業漲價潮出現,各大紙企近期密集發函漲價,單次提價幅度在每噸200元至300元人民幣。不同於以往,這一輪漲價潮中,紙企一封漲價函中設置了兩個新價格,中間間隔約10至15天,最終價格執行周期則從10月初開始。漲價消息將利好紙業股盈利表現,有望帶動股價向好。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,沒持有上述股份)~
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