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光证首予农夫山泉(09633.HK)「增持」评级 指毛利率领同业 可拥较高估值
阿思达克 09-23 12:28
光大证券近日发表报告表示,首予农夫山泉(09633.HK)「增持」评级,指公司是中国包装饮用水及饮料的龙头企业,是目前中国包装饮用水市占率第一品牌,据报告引述Nielsen统计口径计,农夫山泉在中国包装饮用水市占率达26.5%(第二位是怡宝21.3%、第三位及第四位各为百岁山(市占率10.1%)及康师傅(00322.HK)(市占率9.9%)。

该行指,在瓶装水市场,农夫山泉紧紧抓住每瓶售价由1元向2元人民币、纯净水向天然水/天然矿泉水消费升级趋势,市占率持续提升。该行料农夫山泉於2020年至2022年纯利预测各为51.1亿元、62.6亿元及73.2亿人民币,料2020年至2022年每股盈利预测各为0.47、0.57及0.67元人民币,料2020年至2022年纯利复合增长率为19.7%。

光大证券在报告中并无列出对农夫山泉的具体目标价,但该行指按对其盈测,市场现时予农夫山泉估值约明年预测市率56倍,按其对公司予2021年每股盈利预测为0.57元人民币(约0.65港元)推算,相关估值水平约每股36.4港元。

该行指,从可比农夫山泉估值看,港股可比饮料股公司的明年平均预测市盈率为15.9倍、美股可比公司於明年平均预测市盈率26.4倍、日本可比饮料公司2021年的平均预测市盈率38.7倍,据该行对农夫山泉明年预测市率56倍,高於行业水平,考虑到农夫山泉相同业更强的盈利能力(领先的毛利率及净利率水平),指其偏高估值水平具一定合理性。

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