中國鐵建(01186.HK):業務在2020年2季度快速復甦,維持“買入”評級,目標價11.66 港元
機構:國泰君安
評級:買入
目標價:11.66 港元
中國鐵建(01186 HK)2020 上半年收入同比上升 5.1%至 3,707.89 億元(人民幣,下同)。股東淨利同比增 0.3%至 93.16 億元。業績略超預期,主要是由於公司建造運營業務於 2020年 2 季度恢復快於預期。公司整體毛利率同比下降 0.7 個百分點至 9.1%。公司 2020 上半年新籤合同額達 8,758.51 億元,同比上升 21.9%。
我們預計 2019-2022 年整體收入將以 8.6%的複合年增長率增長,以及整體毛利率將從2020 年的 9.3%上升至 2022 年的 9.4%。此外,我們預計公司的淨利率將維持不變,我們預計公司的淨資產收益率將會從 2019 年的 9.6%下降至 2022 年的 9.1%。
我們對於 2020/ 2021/ 2022 年的每股盈利預測分別為 1.559 元、1.745 元及 1.887 元。鑑於政府出於更快速的交通及環境保護的考慮正在持續加大鐵路投資的力度,我們預計鐵路投資的增長將快於其他交通投資,例如公路及港口。我們維持目標價在 11.66 港元,對應3.6/ 3.2 /2.8 倍 2020/ 2021/ 2022 年 EV/EBITDA,維持“買入”評級。

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