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一月下跌9%!豬價跌跌不休,但“豬肉自由”還遠着呢
格隆匯 09-23 12:04

國慶中秋快到了,大家期盼已久的“豬肉自由”似乎也快實現了。

網絡上,“10元時代”、“豬肉塌方式下跌”等等言論興起,國家統計局也出來站台,數據很好看,8月份CPI同比漲幅回落到2.4%,豬肉下跌大勢所趨。雖然隨着雙節的來到,市場豬肉消費有所好轉,但是依然沒能抵擋住豬價下跌的步伐。

最新數據顯示,國內外三元生豬價格連續下跌,現價為34.2元/公斤,和去年10月份水平相當,其中最便宜的新疆地區已經下到了30.97元/公斤。上月同期價格為37.6元/公斤,也就是説過去一個月,豬價累計跌了9%,相當於每頭豬(200斤)的利潤蒸發了340元。

這一走勢毫無疑問主要是因為生豬產能的逐漸恢復。農村農業部發布的數據顯示,8月份生豬存欄環比增長4.7%,能繁母豬環比增長3.5%,生豬、能繁母豬存欄數量的大幅增長,預示着後期出欄的生豬也會越來越多,豬肉供給矛盾的關係也會逐步改變。

另一邊,儘管因為中秋國慶的臨近,市場慢慢進入以往的消費旺季,但由於居高不下的豬肉,消費需求增長仍然受到限制,據不完全統計,和往年同期相比,市場豬肉消費數量減少了4成以上。

供給增加,需求改善較弱,豬價下跌在所難免。

輿論的影響也不能忽視,豬肉價格高漲的時候,會加一把火,讓豬價的上漲更為火熱。而豬價走低時,市場唱衰如潮湧,也會加快生豬價格下跌的步伐。市場恐慌心理一旦形成,很可能出現集中拋售的情況,加速豬價下跌。

敏感的資本市場反應很快,近期豬肉概念股大幅下行,整個豬肉板塊已經連續跌了半個月,累計跌幅近16%。

數據來源:同花順

資金也開始跑路,從月初到現在,豬肉板塊累計流出資金156.65億元,其中温氏股份、新希望流出超過20億元。

數據來源:同花順IFind

但毫無疑問的是,無論是生豬養殖企業還是屠宰企業,早就賺得盆滿缽滿。

數據顯示,去年的非洲豬瘟,今年的疫情對上市豬企的利潤率都帶來了極大的利好,“豬中茅台”牧原股份的毛利率高達64%,此前最高不過20%,其他企業情況基本相似。

數據來源:同花順IFind

此外,值得注意的是,儘管受上半年高豬價吸引而增加的生豬養殖量開始釋放,供給端緊張的局面得到緩解。

但對廣大居民來説,卻沒有感覺到太多的變化。

現在的豬肉批發價是47.27元/公斤,也差不多是去年10月份的水平。但是零售端的情況依舊沒有改善,沃爾瑪300g的豬肉零售價為25.08元,換算一下就是大概83.6元/公斤。昨天小編路過“錢大媽”的時候,特意進去看了一眼,他們家的瘦肉還是賣43.8元一斤。

圖片來源:沃爾瑪商城

這和疫情期間幾乎沒什麼變化。

想想前兩年我們還在吃10來塊錢一斤的豬肉,2018年的生豬價格也不過15元/公斤,不禁想問:到底是二師兄貴了,還是通貨膨脹的太厲害了?

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