《大行报告》中金:内地氢燃料电池国家奖励政策落地 单车最高奖75万人币 向重卡倾斜
就国家财政部、工信部、科技部、发改委、国家能源局等五部委联合发布《关於开展燃料电池汽车示范应用的通知》,对今年开始的四年「示范期」的氢燃料电池支持政策进行了初步明确,主要特点是以奖代补、地方主导、分区推广与全产业链支持。中金发表研究报告,指专项积分鼓励氢能供应,进一步完善燃料电池普及的基础设施。《通知》要求示范城市群车用氢气年产超5,000吨,对每公斤氢气二氧化碳排放量低於5kg给出3分(人民币)/百吨的奖励,同时要求加氢站氢气零售价格不高於35元人民币/公斤,该行认为相关要求有望进一步提高氢燃料使用的经济性,为燃料电池车的进一步推广奠定基础。
该行指,上述通知要求示范城市群推广规模应超1,000辆,该行认为,华东、华北、东北、西北、西南、华中、华南等区域均有不同的低成本制氢模式,若全国范围内形成10个以上的城市群,则截至2023年氢燃料汽车推广的政策底线超过1万辆;以平均每辆车(实车)获得5分奖励估计,1.5万积分可支持每个城市群的国家奖励上限约为3,000辆,则截至2023年氢燃料电池汽车推广的政策顶有望超过3万辆。
中金表示,从国家层面单车奖励最高75.1万人民币,政策向重卡适度倾斜。测算得2021年装配110kW燃料电池系统的31吨以上重卡可获国家奖励75.1万人民币(《通知》范围内最高),2023年装备50kW燃料电池系统的乘用车可获国家奖励29.5万人民币。该行测算得,2020年装有110kW机组的31吨以上的重卡每kW功率奖励金额上限为0.68元人民币,而80kW的乘用车每kW奖励上限仅为0.57元人民币,该行认为政策总体向重卡倾斜。
该行估计内地氢燃料电池乘用车的额定功率50kW标准单车,今年可获国家奖励33.5万人民币、内地氢燃料电池乘用车的额定功率80kW标准的单车计,可获国家奖励45.2万人民币。
该行认为,具备巴拉德与锡里斯(燃料电池商)双方技术的潍柴动力(02338.HK)、氢燃料电池起步较早的上汽集团(600104.SH)、氢能战略布局规划完备的长城汽车(02333.HK)等传统企业在氢燃料电池领域仍将具备较强的竞争。
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