高盛:拜登若当选美元走势将更弱
高盛表示,民主党总统参选人拜登若在今年大选中获胜可能会加快美元贬值。道琼斯数据显示,美元兑一篮子货币今年已累计下跌2.75%,因联储局及国会都采取前所未有的措施来应对疫情冲击。
高盛表示,在美元高估值、美国低息环境以及全球经济复苏下,美元将继续弱势,而拜登一旦当选,更有可能加速美元贬值。
高盛补充,市场对大选结果的反应将取决於财政政策立场、预算赤字规模、税收,以及监管与外交政策。如果拜登胜算,加上民主党掌控参众两院,这将导致更宽松的财政政策及更大的预算赤字;同时拜登建议撤销部分企业减税措施,这可能会压制美国国内生产总值,令美股对国际投资者的吸引力降低,在这两种情况下都会令美元受压。
高盛又提到,拜登采取的多边贸易政策将降低贸易战风险及人民币等货币的风险溢价,在美元普遍疲软的情况下,人民币兑美元汇率将从6.8升至6.5水平。
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