《大行報告》中金:續看好低估值及高息的內險股 推薦國壽及新華保險
中金發表報告指,中國債券利率持續上行,保險股估值的核心變量出現扭轉。由於第一季長端利率的快速下行,市場對於低利率的擔憂持續壓制保險股估值。隨著第二季以來長端債券利率穩健上行,市場預期開始扭轉,該行認為將是驅動保險股估值修復的核心變量。
該行提到,行業新業務增速低點已過,開門紅按年增速或有改善,預計行業下半年行業新業務增長弱復甦,新業務價值按年降幅收窄。由於上半年行業新業務的負增長已經推動市場下修今年增長預期,下半年增速低於預期可能性不大。
中金預計,行業將更加重視明年的開門紅,同時銀行理財收益率下行客觀上有利於儲蓄類保單銷售,因此預計開門紅預售階段新業務按年將重回正增長 ,並有望超預期。
中金表示,港股中繼續看好低估值及高股息的中資保險股,推薦中國人壽(02628.HK)及新華保險(01336.HK),兩企評級均為「跑贏行業」,目標價分別30元及43元。同時,該行重申看好友邦保險(01299.HK)增長前景,認為今年的短期挑戰導致的股價調整提供了買入機會,對其評級為「跑贏行業」,目標價95元。
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