《大行报告》汇丰研究上调吉利(00175.HK)目标价至20.4元 对新能源车短期前景正面
汇丰环球研究发表报告,维持对吉利汽车(00175.HK)目标价,由原来19.7元升至20.4元,基於使用人民币兑港元汇率预测为1.16(先前为1.12),从以得出新的目标价,而该行对吉利的预测保持不变。
该行相信,吉利汽车新型专用电动汽车平台PMA(将计划在2021年全面投入运营)将使电动汽车型更具竞争力及延长产品周期。该行称,与主要电池制造商结成的联盟,应有助吉利於确保电池供应,其姊妹公司沃尔沃汽车与Waymo的联盟,可以增强吉利提高电动汽车自动驾驶水平的能力。而PMA在9月的北京车展上首次亮相,以及新产品的强劲月销售同比增长。
汇丰环球研究称,相信乘用车和商用车的新能源汽车仍将是中国政府减少排放,提高国家能源安全和优先考虑国内生产的政策议程的重要组成部分。该行修订了对新能源汽车销售的短期估计。按最新预测,该行料中国新能源汽车销量(乘用车和商用车)的增长预测,从+12%和+30%,调整为-5%及+35%,以反映新冠疫情对电动车的发布及生产的影响,由於预期今年补贴减少,从明年开始增加优质的电动汽车供应。
该行称,对新能源车(NEV)短期前景乐观,8月份新能源汽车零售额按按年增长47%,按月则增长13%,表现跑赢整体汽车市场(按年增长9%,按月增长7%)。该行估计新能源汽车2020至2030年销售复合年增长率为25%。该行认为,新能源乘用车的销量将在2025年可达到400万辆,料至2030年达到900万辆,意味着渗透率分别为17%和35%。
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