思摩爾國際(06969.HK)：立足霧化時代潮頭，壁壘堅固的製造王者，給予“推薦”評級
機構：東興證券
評級：推薦
電子霧化設備最大製造商，兼具強勁增長與高利潤率。公司是全球第一大電子霧化設備製造商，2019 年市佔率達 16.5%，超過第 2-5 名總和。公司霧化產品矩陣豐富，並擁有全球領先的 FEELM 霧化技術。公司拓展了諸多下游龍頭客户，分享其高增長紅利。2020 年上半年公司收入同比增長 18.5%，經調整後淨利同比增長 40.4%，經調整後淨利率高達 33.7%。
霧化電子煙與 HNB 方興未艾，監管收緊不改長期替煙趨勢。隨着產品迭代進化，疊加吸煙危害深入人心和品牌商的積極營銷，預計未來 5 年全球霧化電子煙和 HNB 零售額 CAGR 達到 25%和 40%。監管收緊亦不改其長期增長趨勢：（1）產品減害屬性獲消費者認可，且兼顧煙民解癮需求；（2）考慮其替 煙減害的屬性，長期來看政策取向將是在嚴格監管的同時允許其充分發展； （3）煙民數量眾多，電子煙+HNB 滲透率不足 10%，提升空間巨大。
研發+製造+客户關係三重優勢，共築公司寬闊護城河。面對製造商眾多、下游品牌頭部化的競爭格局，公司憑藉強大研發能力和製造體系與優質客户緊密合作，助力客户成長並分享其成長紅利，保障公司市場份額和超額利潤率。
掌握核心霧化技術，以知識產權和研發體系鞏固技術優勢。公司陶瓷加熱技術領先全球，構築客户核心產品力，造就客户粘性。公司掌握相關知識產權，並加大研發投入，通過完善的研發體系鞏固技術優勢。
控本增效能力強，研發團隊助力下持續強化製造實力。公司積累了大量霧化設備生產經驗，並在研發團隊協助下普及自動化生產，結合規模效 應與產業聚集區區位優勢實現控本增效，為客户擴張解除後顧之憂。? 攜手龍頭品牌商，與優質客户同行。公司以技術與製造優勢斬獲多家龍 頭客户訂單，助力其快速提升市佔率。公司既是供應商也是客户產品研發合作伙伴，上下游關係緊密。PMTA 亦綁定了公司與客户的合作關係。
投資建議與盈利預測：我們認為公司護城河寬闊，有望以“強勁增長+高利潤率”的勢頭髮展。疫情不改行業發展勢頭，預計 2020-2022 年公司實現營業收入 95 億/132 億/176 億元，淨利潤 30 億/43 億/59 億元，EPS 分別為0.52/0.74/1.01 元，對應 PE 為 70X、49X和 36X。首次覆蓋給予“推薦”評級。
風險提示：監管政策負面影響，市場對霧化產品接受程度不及預期，霧化產品未經發現的健康風險。
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