匯證:對內房前景看法更為謹慎 首選世茂集團(0813.HK)等
匯證發表研究報告指,中國政府早前對內地房地產企業設“三條紅線”,儘管人行的評論語調更清晰和友善,有助於減輕近期的壓力,但由於開發商長期以來一直依賴基於信貸的擴張策略,因此在部分地區仍存在不確定性。
匯證表示,當前的政策將意味行業進一步的業務差異化,有利於一部分的市場參與者。政策要求高槓杆的企業在現金流管理上更為主動,這為財務實力強勁的企業提供了獲得市佔率的機會。該行認為研究範圍內的股票都已準備好應對新規帶來的不確定性,相信高增長品牌,例如旭輝(0884.HK)、世茂集團(0813.HK),仍可實現其銷售增長目標。
該行認為,隨着新一輪的緊縮政策,更高的利潤率壓力及分拆的情緒消散,行業進入了風險偏好較低的時期,單單是強勁的合同銷售趨勢將不再足夠推動公司股價。因此,該行對行業的前景看法更為謹慎,首選為華潤置地(1109.HK)、旭輝、龍光集團(3380.HK)及世茂集團。
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