中國人壽、新華保險雙雙漲停,保險板塊獲機構後市看好
午後保險板塊強勢拉昇,截止收市,中國人壽、新華保險、西水股份漲停,中國太保漲近7%,其餘個股均漲超4%。

數據來源:同花順
多數分析認為,隨着創業板炒作潮的趨緩,成交量開始下降,大白馬股存在估值過高的風險,機構抱團逐漸瓦解,資金大量流出。市場風格逐漸向低估值板塊切換,機構普遍建議重點關注資產內在價值,其中絕對估值足夠低且已經相對充分消化利空因素的保險和銀行板塊受到重點關注。
中國是亞洲第一、全球第二大保險市場。截至上半年,中國財產保險市場保費同比增長7.6%,雖受新冠肺炎疫情影響顯著,但從3月份開始市場整體回暖,增速逐月回升,整體財產險市場展現出極強韌性。
從半年報表現來看,保險板塊的負債端低點已現,後續人力和人均產能提升將推動負債端環比改善,同時經濟復甦將帶來投資端的超預期,四季度將是保險股上漲具有相對確定性的時點。

數據來源:IFind
以中國人壽為例,上半年該公司錄得總營收5137.35億元,同比增長12.36%;歸母淨利潤303.8億元,同比降低5.92%。新業務價值368.9億元,同比增長6.7%;個險渠道新業務價值率為39.3%,較19年末下降6.0個百分點。

數據來源:IFind
A股盤整蓄勢仍在持續,機構策略上開始出現相應的轉變,反彈、上行、調整、防守等等成了今年券商秋季策略會的關鍵詞。各家券商對A股上行空間存在分歧,不過在行業配置方面,都不會忽視業績。
中信證券首席策略分析師秦培景認為,A股中期上行將在9月份啟動,增量資金提供了上行的動力,基本面表現優異抬升了市場的底線。未來可聚焦三條主線:一是受益於弱美元和商品、能源漲價的板塊;二是受益於經濟復甦和消費回暖的可選消費品種,包括汽車、家電、家居、裝修、品牌服飾、院線;三是絕對估值足夠低且已經相對充分消化利空因素的保險和銀行板塊。
開源證券行業策略分析師高超表示,8月份社融超預期,經濟復甦延續下,長端利率回升、權益投資回報率改善,保險資產端持續修復具有較強確定性,後續開門紅保費增速有望超預期。
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