招商证券:中国国债收益率趋升 料可带动中资寿险股估值重估
招商证券香港近日发表报告表示,随着中国国债收益率上升,料对内地保险行业影响正面。报告指国债收益率的回升不仅缓解投资者对於10年期国债收益率750天移动平均线下行的担忧,同时提升了寿险公司投资收益率假设的可信度。
根据该行研究,社融存量增速与递延的10年期国债收益率走势相若(约延後3-4个月,新冠病毒严重爆发时期除外)。基於社融存量增速在3至8月回升,中国10年期国债收益率在未来数个月有望继续保持上升的总体趋势,并带动寿险公司估值重估。
招商证券香港指,内地主要寿险公司如平安(02318.HK)及太保(02601.HK)的新业务价值增长在今年上半年受到新冠疫情的影响,包括由於客户仍对面对面咨询持谨慎态度,在第二季度寿险销售恢复较为疲弱。较为明显的是,平安保险寿险业务强大的线下渠道能力在首季度和二季度都受到了阻碍。相比之下,今年上半年国寿(02628.HK)和新华保险(01336.HK)的新业务价值表现相对较好,部分是由於两公司增加代理人人数,部分是由於其低价值率的简单产品占比更多,更易利用线上渠道销售。总体而言,2020上半年寿险行业代理人产能和新业务价值增长疲弱,但预计在下半年会有所恢复。
该行表示,中资保险行业目前平均预测今年市账率约为1.4倍,基於寿险行业长期发展空间、估值吸引、以及目前上升的国债收益率,维持行业的「推荐」评级,该行在行业中首选国寿,维持「买入」评级,基於2020年新业务价值增速可能维持正增长,目标价为26港元。
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