招商證券:中國國債收益率趨升 料可帶動中資壽險股估值重估
招商證券香港近日發表報告表示,隨著中國國債收益率上升,料對內地保險行業影響正面。報告指國債收益率的回升不僅緩解投資者對於10年期國債收益率750天移動平均線下行的擔憂,同時提升了壽險公司投資收益率假設的可信度。
根據該行研究,社融存量增速與遞延的10年期國債收益率走勢相若(約延後3-4個月,新冠病毒嚴重爆發時期除外)。基於社融存量增速在3至8月回升,中國10年期國債收益率在未來數個月有望繼續保持上升的總體趨勢,並帶動壽險公司估值重估。
招商證券香港指,內地主要壽險公司如平安(02318.HK)及太保(02601.HK)的新業務價值增長在今年上半年受到新冠疫情的影響,包括由於客戶仍對面對面咨詢持謹慎態度,在第二季度壽險銷售恢復較為疲弱。較為明顯的是,平安保險壽險業務強大的線下渠道能力在首季度和二季度都受到了阻礙。相比之下,今年上半年國壽(02628.HK)和新華保險(01336.HK)的新業務價值表現相對較好,部分是由於兩公司增加代理人人數,部分是由於其低價值率的簡單產品佔比更多,更易利用線上渠道銷售。總體而言,2020上半年壽險行業代理人產能和新業務價值增長疲弱,但預計在下半年會有所恢復。
該行表示,中資保險行業目前平均預測今年市賬率約為1.4倍,基於壽險行業長期發展空間、估值吸引、以及目前上升的國債收益率,維持行業的「推薦」評級,該行在行業中首選國壽,維持「買入」評級,基於2020年新業務價值增速可能維持正增長,目標價為26港元。
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