阅文集团(00772.HK)：数字阅读领跑者，构建内容新生态，维持“推荐”评级
机构：国联证券
评级：推荐
数字阅读行业保持增长，免费阅读和付费阅读双驱动。2019年，中国网络文学市场规模达到195.1亿元，同比增长27.1%，根据艾瑞咨询预测，2019-2021年市场规模年复合增速达到20%。数字阅读行业在付费阅读和免费阅读的双推动下增长。付费阅读的增长动力来自四个方面，消费群体的代际演进推动付费意愿增强；内容供给增加，增强用户吸引力并扩大付费市场规模；版权保护力度加强，版权意识提升；支付的便捷性和智能推荐技术提升为移动内容付费提供了支持。同时，免费阅读带来增量用户和广告收入变现，免费阅读用户增速高，但与付费阅读用户重合度低。免费阅读引进了部分新增用户后，一部分用户会出于阅读质量更高的追求转向付费阅读，进而扩大付费阅读用户规模
优质IP具备稀缺性，随着泛娱乐市场增长，IP运营价值将进一步提升。优质IP具备稀缺性，网络文学已经成为IP重要的发源地，IP可向图书出版、音频、视频、知识付费、动漫影视、游戏、旅游、文创周边等产业延展，可延展至数万亿规模市场。
公司竞争优势：新管理层上任，有望加码内容生态构建；作品数和作家数行业最多；渠道流量优势明显，依托庞大IP库及腾讯生态系统，公司IP运营空间大。2020年4月27日，公司公告程武先生为公司执行董事、首席执行官，侯晓楠先生为执行董事、公司总裁，未来公司有望依托于腾讯的社交和内容平台资源，搭建起强大的衍生品开发能力，充分放大IP价值。阅文集团是中国数字阅读行业龙头公司，在中国网络文学市场中是用户基础最大、作家群体最多、内容库最全面的公司。公司的读者、作家、内容和版权运营形成良性生态。公司的渠道主要分为：自有平台产品、腾讯产品自营渠道和第三方平台三类，渠道流量优势明显，2020H1公司MAU达2.334亿，领先行业。
盈利预测与估值：
预计公司2020-2022年归母净利润分别为-26.87亿、12.20亿和17.29亿，2021-2022年对应PE分别42x和30x。从单用户估值来看，公司的单用户估值为207元/MAU，与哔哩哔哩、腾讯音乐、Spotify等相比仍有提升空间。我们认为数字阅读行业空间较大，行业集中度有望逐步提升，给予推荐评级。
风险提示
行业政策发生重大变化的风险；行业竞争加剧的风险。
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