食品飲料行業深度分析：展望食品飲料行業未來十年的好生意，給予“買入”行業評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
核心觀點：
我們前期發佈《覆盤食品飲料行業過去十年的十倍股》，本報告為下篇。我們認為展望食品飲料行業未來十年的好生意，大概率出現在兩個方向：（1）白酒和調味品板塊；（2）新消費趨勢。過去十年食品飲料行業共12只十倍股，白酒和調味品板塊共10只，其餘2只受益新消費趨勢；5-10倍股共16只，白酒和調味品板塊佔1/4，其餘主要受益新消費趨勢。未來十年食品飲料行業的好生意大概率仍出現在白酒和調味品板塊以及新消費趨勢兩個方向。（1）優異的商業模式決定了白酒和調味品板塊仍是牛股的“沃土”。白酒和調味品行業已進入成熟期，行業龍頭未來業績增長穩健，投資者通過把握買點可以進一步提升投資回報率。（2）在收入水平提升、主力消費人羣變遷等因素推動下，新消費趨勢仍會層出不窮，其中具有管理優勢的企業逐漸成長為行業龍頭。對於新消費趨勢，判斷趨勢的可持續性和企業家能力是關鍵。
對於白酒和調味品板塊，把握買點可以進一步提升投資回報率。白酒和調味品商業模式優異：（1）白酒和調味品消費具有高粘性。高粘性的特點使得兩個行業消費基本盤穩固，可長期存在。（2）產品高度差異化且生命週期極長。高度差異化可以錯位競爭，能夠產生一批優質的企業；產品生命週期極長，幾乎無任何的潮流或技術衝擊、不會被後來者輕易顛覆。（3）白酒和調味品是“時間的朋友”。隨着時間的積累，白酒企業以品牌形成的壁壘、調味品企業以渠道構建的壁壘不斷加固。白酒和調味品龍頭未來受益消費升級和集中度提升，業績增長穩健，投資者通過把握買點可以進一步提升投資回報率。覆盤過去十年的歷史，買點往往出現在非公司基本面因素而導致的迅速下跌時。
對於新消費趨勢，醬香酒、餐飲供應鏈、休閒食品將是牛股的“温牀”。我們認為食品飲料行業可持續性最高的新消費趨勢為：（1）醬酒擴容。醬酒擴容是消費者、渠道商、酒廠合力推動的結果。在“茅台熱”帶動下消費者逐漸形成醬香酒品質更高、價值更高的認知；醬酒酒企多數體量小，在旺盛需求下渠道利差高、經銷商推力足；業內外資本紛紛擴產迎合需求。推薦關注郎酒、國台以及金沙等未來有望上市的醬香酒企。（2）餐飲供應鏈變革。餐飲連鎖化推動萬億餐飲供應鏈變革，餐飲半成品成長空間打開，借鑑美日餐飲半成品發展經驗，複合調味料和速凍食品將最受益。推薦關注頤海、天味、日辰、安井、三全以及丁點兒、幺麻子、千味央廚等未來有望上市的企業。（3）休閒食品萬億空間，渠道業態和產品品類不斷更新迭代，看好龍頭市佔率提升和新品類龍頭的成長。關注三隻松鼠、洽洽、鹽津、有友、甘源等。
風險提示。宏觀經濟增長不及預期，行業競爭加劇，食品安全風險。
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