遠大住工(02163.HK)：PC龍頭乘裝配式之風，邁向規模化擴張之路，給予“買入”評級，目標價格45.80港元
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
目標價格：45.80港元
PC構件製造龍頭，下游需求旺盛自身盈利強勁：公司是裝配式建築領域的先行者與領軍者，17年開始轉型PC構件生產，目前已成為國內最大的PC構件製造商。在不斷擴容的裝配式行業中，預製混凝土構件以其傳統特性、成本優勢以及更高的政策貼合度獲得了部分下游客户的偏好。得益於不斷提升的PC構件需求和公司實力，近年業績表現出色，PC業務增長迅速，費用及槓桿控制良好，盈利水平遠遠領先同行。
核心競爭力在於其PC業務獨特商業模式：公司出色的生產及盈利能力源自其PC構件製造業務的獨特的商業模式：（1）全資工廠+聯合工廠雙輪驅動模式：除全資工廠外，公司與地區夥伴合作開設聯合工廠，根據招股書測算，公司目前全資工廠產能191萬方，聯合工廠產能489萬方。公司運用自身的品牌優勢及PC生產設備製造能力支持聯合工廠發展，形成全資與聯合工廠的協同效應，工廠已遍佈全國23省市區，全國化格局已初步顯現；（2）智能化生產模式：依託PC構件的製造能力，以及PCMaker及PC-CPS等先進軟件和系統，公司打通了設計制造到施工運維的每步生產流程，以製造業結合物聯網引領行業發展。
戰略佈局：開拓農村ToC市場。20年3月國務院發佈《關於授權和委託用地審批權的決定》，將農用地轉為建設用地審批權下放地方政府，釋放農村住宅需求。公司推出全裝配式遠大美宅業務有望快速發展。
投資建議：預計公司20-22年歸母淨利潤分別為6.7/9.5/12.4億元，綜合考慮可比公司估值和公司業績，考慮折價率後給予公司21年行業平均的21倍PE，對應合理價值約為45.80港元/股（港幣兑人民幣匯率匯率為0.8964），首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級。
風險提示：裝配式滲透率不及預期；原料價格上漲；聯合工廠虧損。
註釋：若無特別説明，本文貨幣單位均為人民幣。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
