旭輝控股集團(00884.HK)2020年8月銷售數據點評：銷售超預期高增，拿地聚焦一二線，維持“強推”評級，目標價8.51港元
機構：華創證券
評級：維持“強推”
目標價：8.51港元
9月3日，旭輝控股公佈，2020年8月公司實現合同銷售金額256.0億元，同比上升86.0%；實現合同銷售面積181.7萬平，同比上升88.1%。合同銷售均價14,100元/平米，同比下降1.1%。
點評：
8月銷售256億、同比+86%，單月銷售高增，累計同比增速轉正
8月，公司銷售金額256.0億元，環比+16.4%、同比+86.0%；銷售面積181.7萬平，環比+18.6%、同比+88.1%，單月銷售環比、同比大增；銷售均價14,100元/平，環比-1.8%、同比-1.1%。1-8月，公司累計銷售金額1,283.2億元，同比+9.9%，較前值+10.2pct；累計銷售面積824.4萬平，同比+19.3%，較前值+11.2pct；累計銷售均價15,600元/平，同比-7.7%。2020年，公司預計可售貨值達3,800億元，其中一二線及準二線佔比89%，2020年銷售目標2,300億元，對應同比+15%，對應可售貨值去化率60.5%，鑑於公司深耕供需關係良好的一二線熱點城市，且佈局集中在長三角、中西部、環渤海等城市羣，可售貨值充裕望助力銷售穩增，並隨權益比例提升，權益銷售增速計劃或將更高。
前8月拿地/銷售金額比49%、拿地積極，能級提升、權益比提升
根據公司月度通訊，8月，公司新增5幅地塊，位於長沙、常德、成都、上海、北京，新增規劃建築面積125.0萬平，拿地/銷售面積比69%，對應總地價101.6億元，平均樓面地價8,132元/平，拿地權益比為84%，拿地/銷售金額比達40%。1-8月，公司新增規劃建築面積753.2萬平，同比-25%，拿地/銷售面積比91%；對應總地價632.7億元，同比+31%，拿地/銷售金額比達49%、拿地積極；平均樓面地價8,400元/平，同比+75%。公司通過公開市場、合作併購、舊改、商業勾地等多元化方式擴充優質土儲，截至20H1末，公司已確權土儲5,270萬平，可覆蓋19年銷售面積4.4倍，其中權益土儲2,770萬平，土儲較充裕、聚焦於核心二線城市，有望助力後續穩健發展和結算利潤率穩定。
投資建議：銷售超預期高增，拿地聚焦一二線，重申“強推”評級
旭輝控股集團起步上海，堅持高品質全國化佈局，深耕一二線，聚焦城市羣，銷售實現高增長，融資成本上市後持續下行，負債率一直安全可控，近幾年利潤率穩定，實現規模、利潤率、槓桿率三者動態均衡發展。公司佈局聚焦一二線+城市羣，預計銷售和業績有望穩增。我們維持公司2020-22年每股收益分別為1.03、1.24、1.49元，現價對應20/21年PE分別為5.5、4.6倍，19A股息率高達5.9%，維持目標價8.51港元，並重申“強推”評級。
風險提示：新冠肺炎疫情影響超預期、房地產調控政策超預期收緊
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