《大行报告》摩通升理文造纸(02314.HK)评级至「增持」 上调目标价至6.5元
摩根大通发表报告,对包装纸生产行业前景转趋乐观,相信理文造纸(02314.HK)短期均可受惠於行业在今年第四季需求回升,料明年可续改善,认为理文造纸估值低廉(市账率仅0.85倍),股价将可跑赢大市,调高对其2021年及2022年纯利预测各14%。
该行指,上调对理文造纸投资评级,由「中性」升至「增持」,将目标价由5元升至6.5元,相当预测2021财年市账率1倍,认为随着行业毛利率明年改善,料市场可调高对理文造纸的估值。
摩根大通称,相信中国包装纸公司的最新大型资本支出周期会在2020年结束,明年新增产能的增速将放缓至140万吨,对比2020年为480万吨。
投资者对包装纸行业关键担忧之一是政府推动天然气使用的政策,可能导致由於成本增加,利润率大幅下降,但该行认为市场属过度忧虑,并指有关论点未能考虑到对供应的潜在影响。该行研究了天然气转化中的两个案例研究,其中一个用玻璃包装纸业,观察相关影响及过渡後的供应情况,结果是令相关企业有更好的供应纪律。该行注意领先的玻璃包装纸公司目前的净资产收益率甚至达到15%至20%,而中国玻璃工业的一半左右已转向使用天然气。
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