《大行報告》摩通升理文造紙(02314.HK)評級至「增持」 上調目標價至6.5元
摩根大通發表報告,對包裝紙生產行業前景轉趨樂觀,相信理文造紙(02314.HK)短期均可受惠於行業在今年第四季需求回升,料明年可續改善,認為理文造紙估值低廉(市賬率僅0.85倍),股價將可跑贏大市,調高對其2021年及2022年純利預測各14%。
該行指,上調對理文造紙投資評級,由「中性」升至「增持」,將目標價由5元升至6.5元,相當預測2021財年市賬率1倍,認為隨著行業毛利率明年改善,料市場可調高對理文造紙的估值。
摩根大通稱,相信中國包裝紙公司的最新大型資本支出週期會在2020年結束,明年新增產能的增速將放緩至140萬噸,對比2020年為480萬噸。
投資者對包裝紙行業關鍵擔憂之一是政府推動天然氣使用的政策,可能導致由於成本增加,利潤率大幅下降,但該行認為市場屬過度憂慮,並指有關論點未能考慮到對供應的潛在影響。該行研究了天然氣轉化中的兩個案例研究,其中一個用玻璃包裝紙業,觀察相關影響及過渡後的供應情況,結果是令相關企業有更好的供應紀律。該行注意領先的玻璃包裝紙公司目前的淨資產收益率甚至達到15%至20%,而中國玻璃工業的一半左右已轉向使用天然氣。
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