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美银调查:科技泡沫是第二大尾部风险
格隆汇 09-16 20:21

作者:小王子

来源:金十数据

美股科技股今年迄今上涨了25%,甚至有分析师总结道2020年两大交易策略:做多科技股,或者做多今年以来仍在下跌的任何股票。可是这样做真的安全吗?

美国银行9月份针对199名基金经理进行的月度调查显示,基金经理们似乎对科技股后市表现感到担忧。调查显示,80%的受访者表示,科技股是有史以来最拥挤的交易。

另外,22%受访者认为科技泡沫是第二大尾部风险。

美银在上周的一份报告中强调,标普500指数的8月份回报率为7.2%,其中10只股票的占比超过50%,回报最高的5只股票分别是苹果、微软、亚马逊、Facebook和Salesforce。

尽管投资者对科技股股价畸形走高及其在市场中所占比例过高的担忧加剧,但有58%的受访者表示,股市正处于牛市,上个月这一比例是46%;同时仍有29%的受访者认为市场正在经历熊市反弹,上个月持这一观点的受访者比例为35%。

从技术面上讲,鉴于标普500指数、纳斯达克100指数和道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数回调超过20%后都创下了新的历史新高,股市从理论上讲的确处于新的牛市阶段。但科技股交易过于拥挤,始终是一个危险的信号。

关于宏观经济方面,与美银上个月的调查相比,更多的受访者认为,美国经济正在经历U型复苏。84%的受访者预计全球经济增速将会提高,40%的受访者预计全球经济将变得更加强劲,这是该报告有史以来的最高水平。

尽管受访者持经济前景持乐观态度,但数据显示,8月份,受访基金经理的现金持仓占比从4.6%升至4.8%,仅略低于美银设定的5%门槛。

现金仓位水平衡量的是一个市场中以现金或现金等价物形式持有的总资产量,是揭示基金经理对市场和经济前景信心指数的重要指标。如今居高不下的现金持仓规模,或许足以说明,市场依然充满未知风险。

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