《大行報告》高盛籲留意中資股末季四大主題 受惠疫苗、價值周期、美總統大選及中概股回歸
高盛發表中國市場策略報告表示，中資股於今年6月至8月股價累升25%，是2007年以來最佳，表現「火熱」。該行料中資股至今年年底表現仍會反覆波動，重申對MSCI中國指數未來12個月目標預測為104點(料相關指數企業今明兩年股盈分別跌4%及升24%)，予「增持」評級，料未來12個月潛在總回報8%(以美元計)。該行予滬深300指數「增持」評級，12個月目標4,900點(料相關指數企業今明兩年股盈分別升5%及15%)，料未來12個月潛在總回報12%(以美元計)。
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高盛表示，建議投資者在今年第四季可留意4個投資主題，第一個主題是潛在受惠新冠疫苗推出的主題股，將包括航空、濠賭股、餐飲及酒店業，在本港上市可受惠消費復蘇股份包括金沙中國(01928.HK)、銀娛(00027.HK)、澳博(00880.HK)、同程藝龍(00780.HK)、國航(00753.HK)、新濠國際(00200.HK)、香格里拉(00069.HK)、南航(01055.HK)、東航(00670.HK)、六福(00590.HK)、呷哺呷哺(00520.HK)，予「買入」評級。
第二個主題是價值周期股份，包括估值低及受惠國策(如新基建、雙循環)的股份，高盛列出相關在本港上市的主題股包括玖紙(02689.HK)、中國建材(03323.HK)、紫金(02899.HK)、濰柴(02338.HK)、理文造紙(02314.HK)、廣汽(02238.HK)、中鐵(00390.HK)、中車時代(03898.HK)、中國中車(01766.HK)、上實(00363.HK)、中鐵建(01186.HK)、金風(02208.HK)、金隅(02009.HK)，予「買入」評級。
該行指，第三個主題是美國總統大選，基於中美兩國關係緊張，美共和黨候選人特朗普與美民主黨候選人拜登的民調及勝選機會的高低，均會左右潛在受影響的股份表現。該行認為若拜登民調領先，會利好中資科網及科技股，此情境下股價可跑贏的本港上市股份包括阿里健康(00241.HK)、平安好醫生(01833.HK)、中生製藥(01177.HK)、藥明生物(02269.HK)、華虹半導體(01347.HK)、騰訊(00700.HK)；若特朗普民調領先，此情境下股價可跑贏的本港上市股份包括招行(03968.HK)、中信股份(00267.HK)、海螺創業(00586.HK)。
第四個主題是在美上市的中概股回來香港掛牌上市的概念，高盛估計有37隻在美上市的中概股潛在來港掛牌，有25隻中概股或在美國市場進行私有化。(wl/u)
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