《大行报告》高盛吁留意中资股末季四大主题 受惠疫苗、价值周期、美总统大选及中概股回归
高盛发表中国市场策略报告表示，中资股於今年6月至8月股价累升25%，是2007年以来最佳，表现「火热」。该行料中资股至今年年底表现仍会反覆波动，重申对MSCI中国指数未来12个月目标预测为104点(料相关指数企业今明两年股盈分别跌4%及升24%)，予「增持」评级，料未来12个月潜在总回报8%(以美元计)。该行予沪深300指数「增持」评级，12个月目标4,900点(料相关指数企业今明两年股盈分别升5%及15%)，料未来12个月潜在总回报12%(以美元计)。
高盛表示，建议投资者在今年第四季可留意4个投资主题，第一个主题是潜在受惠新冠疫苗推出的主题股，将包括航空、濠赌股、餐饮及酒店业，在本港上市可受惠消费复苏股份包括金沙中国(01928.HK)、银娱(00027.HK)、澳博(00880.HK)、同程艺龙(00780.HK)、国航(00753.HK)、新濠国际(00200.HK)、香格里拉(00069.HK)、南航(01055.HK)、东航(00670.HK)、六福(00590.HK)、呷哺呷哺(00520.HK)，予「买入」评级。
第二个主题是价值周期股份，包括估值低及受惠国策(如新基建、双循环)的股份，高盛列出相关在本港上市的主题股包括玖纸(02689.HK)、中国建材(03323.HK)、紫金(02899.HK)、潍柴(02338.HK)、理文造纸(02314.HK)、广汽(02238.HK)、中铁(00390.HK)、中车时代(03898.HK)、中国中车(01766.HK)、上实(00363.HK)、中铁建(01186.HK)、金风(02208.HK)、金隅(02009.HK)，予「买入」评级。
该行指，第三个主题是美国总统大选，基於中美两国关系紧张，美共和党候选人特朗普与美民主党候选人拜登的民调及胜选机会的高低，均会左右潜在受影响的股份表现。该行认为若拜登民调领先，会利好中资科网及科技股，此情境下股价可跑赢的本港上市股份包括阿里健康(00241.HK)、平安好医生(01833.HK)、中生制药(01177.HK)、药明生物(02269.HK)、华虹半导体(01347.HK)、腾讯(00700.HK)；若特朗普民调领先，此情境下股价可跑赢的本港上市股份包括招行(03968.HK)、中信股份(00267.HK)、海螺创业(00586.HK)。
第四个主题是在美上市的中概股回来香港挂牌上市的概念，高盛估计有37只在美上市的中概股潜在来港挂牌，有25只中概股或在美国市场进行私有化。(wl/u)
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