《大行报告》花旗:中国8月零售年内首录正增长 复苏达里程碑 料可延至末季
花旗发表报告,就中国国统局公布今年8月经济数据,今年首八个月全国固定资产投资,由7月按年跌1.6%,改善至按年跌0.3%优於市场预期(市场原估计跌0.4%),房地产投资回复增长、基建投资及制造业投资持续见改善;内地8月零售销售按年升0.5%胜预期,为疫情以来首录正增长;8月全国规模以上工业增加值按年增5.6%亦胜预期。
该行指,中国8月经济数据呈复苏达到了一个里程碑,并相信可能持续至今年第四季,指消费是中国今年上半年经济增长的主要障碍。该行指消费尽管仍然脆弱,但零售额终於开始增长,随着公共卫生条件的改善,更多的消费者行业例如电影院等重新营业。该行指,内地即将到来的国庆黄金周假期,或是旅游业复苏的另一个催化剂。
花旗表示,尽管中国劳动力市场面临压力,但收入的增长仍存在,虽然中国工作信心指数和8月份的就业率小幅下降,但私人和制造业固定资产投资明显增长。此外,该行料内地房地产投资应在今年余下时间具有韧性,料今年的财政刺激方案将支持基础设施投资。
展望未来,尽管中美之间紧张的局势、中国经济收入增长和外部需求存在风险,但该行认为内地刺激经济措施的影响尚未完全实现,经济增长势头将可增强。
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