野村:內險行業最差時期可能已過去 維持中國平安為長線核心持倉
野村發表研究報告指,中國保險行業逐漸發表8月份營運數據,當中壽險的復甦非常緩慢,速度低於該行預期,但保費增長最差時期可能已經過去。另外,財險公司繼續復甦勢頭,8月保費平均增長7%,下半年首2個月增長9%,對比上半年為增長7%。
該行維持中國平安(2318.HK)為長線核心持倉,又相信中國人壽(2628.HK)、新華保險(1336.HK)及中國太平(0966.HK)將受惠於利率反彈。
壽險方面,野村指,新華保險繼續保持領先地位,8月保費按年增長10%,主要受積極的業務戰略和經紀數量擴張推動,預計8月份首年度保費(FYP)將有正增長。而中國人壽8月保費收入按年跌1%,新業務價值亦放緩。另外,中國平安及中國太保(2601.HK)則仍然受壓。
財險方面,野村指,雖然平保及太保的保費收入增長較7月略有放緩,但中國財險(2328.HK)的增長速度遠慢於它們,主要受其虧損的信用擔保保險業務拖累,8月保費收入按年跌85%。
野村指,最壞的時期或已經過去,但是壽險業務的恢復需要更多時間,又認為由於新冠肺炎疫情對保險的需求並未減弱,甚至由於對大流行的認知提高,保險需求或有所增加,但需要耐心等待。
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