工行首席经济学家料内地今年经济增长或约3%
工商银行(01398.HK)(601398.SH)首席经济学家周月秋接受人行旗下《金融时报》访问,预计中国经济增速将逐步回归到潜在增长水平,照现时的发展趋势,今年中国经济增速甚至有可能达到3%左右。
他指,在全球经济衰退的大背景下,中国经济发展也面临一定的困难和挑战。但随着国内大循环为主体,国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局的逐步形成,在跨周期调控政策支撑下,国内需求有望更快恢复,增长动能可望持续提升。
周月秋又提到,中国宏观政策调节空间还不小。面对疫情冲击,中国并未像西方国家一样大水漫灌,而是采取积极有为的财政政策和灵活适度的货币政策,并取得良好成效。此也为政策层面留下了较大的调节空间和余地。
对於今年上半年商业银行净利润出现负增长,他认为不能简单地理解为商业银行经营出现了大问题,实际上利润负增长既有疫情冲击的影响,同时也是银行业坚决落实向实体经济合理让利决策部署的结果。
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