永達汽車(03669.HK)：8月豪車銷售快速增長，公司將繼續受益豪車消費趨勢，維持“買入”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
核心觀點：
8月豪華品牌乘用車銷售快速增長，延續優於行業增長的銷售勢頭。 根據中機中心汽車保險上牌數據，2020 年上半年，國內主流豪華品牌汽車銷量達到131.2 萬輛，同比僅下滑 7.4%，大幅優於行業；上半年豪華品牌市場份額達到 17.6%。豪華品牌汽車 8 月零售銷量快速增長，同比增長 32%，延續優於行業增長的銷售勢頭。
永達汽車新車銷售穩健恢復，豪車銷售結構持續優化。公司 1H20 新車銷量為 81,974 輛，較同期下降 13.5%。公司主要代理豪華車品牌復甦趨勢較好，Q2 季度豪華及超豪華品牌銷售收入同比增長 17.5%；二手車交易業務恢復情況高於行業平均水平，上半年同比下降 2.7%，對比行業同比降幅 19.6%低16.9pct，具有較大競爭力。
公司調整經營策略，多角度打通盈利點。公司 1H20 汽車售後業務同比下降 6.7%，為降低疫情影響，公司調整經營戰略，開展多種營銷活動確保售後業務收入恢復，同時加強零部件採購成本控制。汽車金融業務也略有調整，上半年金融和保險業務收入同比下降 9.8%；上半年管理的資產餘額為人民幣 33.7 億元，較去年年末39.9億元下降 14.4%。
預計公司持續受惠於豪車強勁銷量，維持“買入”評級。預計主要豪華品牌市場恢復速度較快，新車銷量有望實現穩步增長，從而擴大售後及精品業務的客户基礎。我們預計 2020-2022 年 EPS 分別為0.94/1.12/1.35 人民幣元/股。綜合考慮可比公司估值以及公司業務結構自身特點,我們給予公司合理估值 10 倍 2020E P/E，對應合理價值為 10.68 港元/股（匯率計算：港元兑人民幣：1:0.881） ，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示。汽車銷售、售後業務和汽車金融業務發展不及預期，消費需求不足導致汽車經銷市場經營出現困境，疫情對業務運營的相關影響。
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