牛熊異動 | 半導體股走強,中芯牛證漲超50%
午後,港股半導體股走強,中芯國際(00981.HK)漲超5%,華虹半導體漲2.68%,上海復旦漲2.21%。相關衍生品中芯法興一四牛B(51354.HK)漲幅超50%。
國信點評:第一, 中芯國際滿足相關要求,沒有制裁依據。從業務開展看,中芯國際作爲一家全球化的半導體代工廠,與全球半導體產業鏈融爲一體。從運營規則看,中芯國際一直嚴格遵守相關國家和地區的法律法規,並在此基礎上一直合法依規經營。中芯國際的產品及服務皆用於民用和商用,從沒有任何涉及軍事應用的經營行爲。第二, 中芯國際沒有能力爲軍事服務。軍事用芯片要求很高,特別是可靠性、穩定性要求。而中芯國際的 14nm 去年Q4才量產,目前產能、良率還在提升過程中,14nm以及14nm以上的工藝是不能夠滿足軍事要求。第三, 中芯國際對美國半導體沒有任何威脅,沒有制裁意義。中芯國際的目前最先進的只有 14nm,而全球龍頭臺積電已經到5nm,中間還有10nm、7nm,距離臺積電技術還差3代。所以,從先進技術競爭角度看,中芯國際對全球半導體暫無威脅。第四, 沒有人才就沒有技術,中國大陸半導體從業人員的薪資待遇遠不及互聯網和軟件行業,優秀大學畢業生從事半導體制造的意願很弱。2019年騰訊控股人均薪酬 84萬元,而中芯國際只有28萬元。從薪資和人才角度看,中芯國際的技術水平還沒有達到美國真正制裁的水準。第五, 無論美國是否制裁中芯國際,中芯國際作爲大陸半導體制造龍頭有絕對的投資價值。資金和技術兩大壁壘,讓再有資金實力的金主也望而卻步。從供給的角度看,中芯國際既是現在龍頭也是未來的龍頭,在大陸的大科技領域,中芯國際的競爭格局最好。評論:美國製裁中芯國際沒有依據中芯國際在 9月 5日發佈聲明,表示:首先,中芯國際作爲一家同時在香港證券交易所及中國大陸 A股上市的國際化運營的集成電路製造企業,公司嚴格遵守相關國家和地區的法律法規,並在此基礎上一直合法依規經營;其次,中芯國際與多個美國及國際知名的半導體設備供貨商,建立多年良好的合作關係,美國商務部多年來針對中芯國際進口採購的設備,也已經核發多件重要的出口許可。最後,中芯國際自成立以來作爲全球半導體供應鏈上的重要成員,客戶遍及美國、歐洲及中國大陸等世界各地,其產品及服務皆用於民用和商用,從沒有任何涉及軍事應用的經營行爲,與中國軍方毫無關係。
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