天立教育(01773.HK)：20／21在校生5.7萬同比增45%，簽約玉林學校進軍廣西，維持“買入”評級
機構：天風證券
評級：買入
20/21 學年天立校網在校生合計 5.7 萬人同比增 45%，其中自有校 4.9 萬人同比增 39%，託管校 0.8 萬人同比增 90%。
9 月 10 日，公司公告，校網內 K12 學校的入讀人數約 56,582 人，同比增長約 44.5%，其中自有學校學生約 48,773 人，委託學校學生約 7809 人，同比增長分別約 39.2%和 90.1%。
入讀人數增加主要原因系努力擴大校網及提高學校使用率。公司將繼續策略性地擴展校網，並擴大於中國二線及三線城市的地域覆蓋，以致力成為中國基礎教育行業的創新者和引領者。公司亦將繼續吸引及儲備有德才之師資並改善培訓課程以保持競爭力。
我們預計山東日照、東營；江西宜春等首年校招生表現亮眼，川內成都、劍閣首年校招生繼續強勢；第二年次新校較首年全部進步。
據玉林福綿區官微顯示，9 月 7 日，公司簽約廣西玉林學校項目，項目總投資約 5.5 億元，玉林天立國際學校是天立教育在廣西第一所 K12 學校，學校設計規模 5300 人。
官微顯示，作為公辦教育的補充，玉林天立國際學校的開辦將有利於吸引福綿區及玉林外流的優秀師生迴流、有利於促進福綿區教育質量整體提升，有利於減少政府辦學的財政支出壓力，有利於緩解福綿區公辦學位短缺，有利於福綿區完善城市公共配套和促進福綿區的城市開發進程。
天立成長邏輯深度驗證，成長節奏清晰明確。政策旨在規範民辦校發展，營造公平健康辦學環境，杜絕部分舉辦者違規佔用騰挪辦學資金及資源。我們相信優質教育資源中長期仍具有較強吸引力及議價能力。
維持盈利預測，給予買入評級
天立憑藉自身辦學經驗有效豐富當地教育供給，藉助民辦特有靈活優勢提高運營效率；另一方面將有效減輕地方財政壓力，全國多數地方政府大都對民辦教育採取積極歡迎態度。我們始終堅定看好天立模式，認可其對優質教育資源經驗的異地輸出與複製。目前政策尚未最終落地，但因地制宜引導優質民辦教育發展或是長期方向。天立目前處於快速成長階段，更需關注收入及在校生增長，伴隨學校成熟業績將逐步釋放，我們預計天立FY20-21 年淨利分別為人民幣 3.9 億、 5.3 億，對應 PE 分別為 36xPE、 26xPE。
風險提示：民促法實施條例尚未落地；廣西學校招生不及預期；核心高管流失；市場競爭激烈；
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