DWS料疫情将带来长期负面影响 中概股回归趋势持续
资产管理公司DWS亚太区投资总监Sean Taylor在电话会议上表示,随着秋季来临,环球爆发新一轮新型冠状病毒疫情的风险增加,即使有疫苗出现,估计亦难在短期改变局面,因此是次疫情料将带来长期负面影响,预期全球经济於2022年中前都难以回复至疫情前的水平。
DWS最新估计美国今年经济将衰退5.4%,明年反弹至增长4.2%;欧盟区今年经济料收缩8.5%,明年改善至增长5.5%;中国经济今年仍预期有2%增长,明年增长大幅提升至8.5%;新兴市场今年经济料衰退1.9%,明年则增长5.8%。而香港受累疫情致旅客大减等,估计今年经济将收缩8%。
Sean Taylor指,除疫情外,今年第四季环球风险还包括美国总统大选、中美关系紧张,及英国脱欧谈判可能失败。美国总统大选方面,目前民主党参选人拜登呼声较高,若拜登胜选及民主党控制参众议院,推出损害企业每股盈利的财富税的机会料增加,但本月底举行的首场总统选举辩论对形势料有重要影响。
至於中美关系,他认为已由贸易问题扩展至科技、金融市场脱钩、对侵犯人权行为制裁等方面,预期美国大选後中美紧张关系仍会持续,美国希望拖慢中国科技发展等举动,料将促使中国在芯片等供应上加快自给自足,而中概股回归及在港上市的趋势预期亦会持续,对中港资本市场料有正面影响。
另外,他称环球股市经过调整後,目前较为看好亚洲股票,会将资金由美国分散投资至亚洲市场,其中最为看好中国及南韩市场,评级为「增持」,印度及台湾为「中性」,东盟则为「减持」。板块方面继续看好健康护理及科技股,认为相对於美国科技股,亚洲科技股估值仍未反映。
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