中國南方航空股份(01055.HK)2020年中報點評：注資增強資金儲備，樞紐建設週期延長，維持“增持”評級，目標價5.97港元
機構：國泰君安
評級：增持
目標價：5.97港元
本報告導讀：
南航積極把握國際客貨運市場機遇，實現二季度大幅減虧。預計 2021 年海外疫情仍將拖累行業盈利恢復，且將可能延長大興國際樞紐建設週期。
摘要：
維持增持評級。南航積極把握貨運機遇，寬體機最大化國際客運收益，二季度減虧大超預期，預計下半年繼續減虧。考慮海外疫情形勢，預計盈利恢復慢於先前預期，並可能延長南航大興國際樞紐建設。下調2020-22 年歸母淨利至-130/-20/23 億元人民幣（原-130/44/66），EPS-0.85/0.13/0.15 元。維持目標價 5.97 元港幣，相當於 1.3 倍 PB。
經營淨現金流轉正，注資增強抗風險能力。貨運主導 Q2 環比減虧超四成，經營淨現金流轉正。積極壓縮資本開支，完成向集團 A+H 定增注資 160 億元，並正在積極推進不超過 160 億元可轉債發行。未來1-2 年疫情對航空業影響仍存，南航資產負債表健康，抗風險能力強。
下調 2021-22 年業績預測。航空市場復甦先量後價，年內客流將恢復至接近 2019 年同期，而票價仍可能持續低迷。預計 2020 年需求（量*價）相當於 2019 年五成，2021 年恢復 85%，2022 年有望基本恢復。
預計 2021 年行業仍可能普遍虧損，盈利恢復有待 2022 年。基準情景假設：由“下半年全球疫情得到有效控制”調整為“假設全球疫情 2021年內得到有效控制”。國際客流假設：由“2021 年恢復複合正增長”調整為“2021 年恢復至 2019 年的五成，2022 年基本恢復”。（1）ASK假設：下調 2020-21 年至 2019 年的-46%/-2%（原-32%/+10%）。（2）座收假設：下調 2020-21 年同比至-19%/+4%（原-18%/+8%）。（3）油價：假設以 8 月末水平持續，全年同比降 30%（原-40%）。（4）貨運收入：上調 2020 年同比至+40%（原-10%）。
北京國際樞紐建設週期或延長。南航長期利潤趨勢將取決於廣州-北京雙樞紐運營成效。北京大興機場設計先進，定位高遠。預計未來半年將完成搬遷，南航計劃 2025 年投放飛機超 200 架。區位差異將可能導致北京兩場國內航線票價長期差異。同時，預計未來 1-2 年國際航線恢復較為緩慢，並可能延長南航大興國際樞紐的建設週期。
風險提示。增發攤薄，疫情持續，經濟下行，匯率油價，安全事故。
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