農夫山泉(09633.HK)農夫山泉深度報告：包裝水+飲料雙引擎驅動，渠道+營銷構築競爭壁壘，給予“買入”評級，目標價40.50港元
機構：浙商證券
評級：買入
標價：40.50港元
1、軟飲行業為近萬億市場大賽道，持續增長成長空間廣闊。
2019年中國軟飲料市場規模為9914億元，其中包裝水對應兩千億市場， 近五年CAGR為11%，成長空間廣闊；咖啡、功能飲料增速亮眼，對應2014~2019年CAGR分別達14%、29%。公司旗下業務板塊分為包裝飲用水、飲料及其他三大業務線，以包裝飲用水為基本盤，連續八年保持中國包裝飲用水市場佔有率第一；同時進入茶飲、功能及果汁飲料等旁側細分賽道，成長空間大。公司營收淨利潤持續穩健增長，FY2019公司實現總營收240.21億元，同比增長17.32%；實現淨利潤49.49億元，同比大增37.24%，表現亮眼。
2、包裝水+飲料雙引擎驅動，渠道、營銷構築競爭壁壘。
打造包裝水+飲料雙引擎驅動。飲用水業務成本結構穩定、毛利率較高，我們預計，疫情期間大包裝水的旺盛需求帶動2020年飲用水業務維持正增長，2021-2022年需求恢復有望實現15%以上增長；先後推出果汁、功能飲料、茶飲料等多品類佈局，提前佈局貼合行業健康化大趨勢，受益後疫情需求復甦，無糖茶、NFC果汁及功能飲料有望依託龍頭品牌效應及行業快速增長，預計2021-2022年實現15-20%的同比增長；公司新產品管線儲備豐富，多品類新單品推出有望引爆市場，預計2020年帶動其他業務板塊同增140%，2021年貢獻逾3億增量收入。
公司廣泛佈局水源基地，同時依託營銷、深入廣泛的渠道優勢構築護城河，預計2021年軟飲龍頭將率先顯著受益需求復甦，帶動收入、淨利潤分別恢復至同比18.75%/20.22%的增速，值得期待。
3、催化劑：品類創新持續研發落地，新發大單品引爆市場。
4、盈利預測與投資建議
我們預計公司2020-2022年營收分別為235.25/279.35/320.57億元，對應同比增速-2.07%/18.75%/14.76%，歸母淨利潤分別為52.88/63.58/71.37億元，對應同比增速6.87%/20.22%/12.27%， EPS分別為0.54/0.64/0.72港元。我們認為，隨着疫情影響消退及公司產能擴張，2021年公司營收、淨利潤端將恢復至18%-21%的增速。考慮到公司優異的盈利能力、成長性及港股市場標的稀缺性，給予目標價40.50港元，首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級。
風險提示
1、行業競爭環境惡化的風險；
2、食品安全及監管政策變化的風險；
3、新品持續創新不及預期。
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