中國國航(00753.HK)2020年中報點評：需求復甦滯後客流，靜待龍頭效應恢復，維持“增持”評級，目標價 9.29 港元
機構：國泰君安
評級：增持
目標價：9.29 港元
本報告導讀：
預計疫情影響時間將超出我們先前預期，但不會改變國航時刻網絡價值，以及長期價值提升趨勢。疫情影響結束後國航將再次展現龍頭效應，並開啟盈利上行週期。
摘要：
維持增持評級。國航擁有中國最高價值時刻網絡，及最優品質客源。疫情顯著抑制短期需求，且影響時間將超預期。疫情影響結束後，國航將再次展現龍頭效應，並開啟盈利上行週期。下調 2020-22 年淨利至-125/4/75 億元人民幣（原-113/84/105），EPS-0.86/0.03/0.52 元。考慮國航長期盈利能力優秀，維持目標價 9.29 元港幣，相當於 1.5 倍 PB。
下半年經營改善或超預期。上半年淨利-94 億元；剔除國泰投資損失淨利-70 億元。Q2 受北京防疫措施及疫情反覆影響，客運承壓最明顯。國航積極備戰市場復甦，隨着公商務客流啟動，經營有望加速改善。
航空需求的重新定義。我們認為需求並非客流，而應是旅客願意為航空出行支付的價款總額。低票價加速客流恢復，而需求復甦滯後。預計年底國內客流基本恢復，而整體需求恢復或僅七成。預計 2020 年需求（量*價）相當於 2019 年四成，2021 年恢復八成，2022 年有望基本恢復。基準情景假設：由“下半年全球疫情得到有效控制”調整為“全球疫情 2021 年內得到有效控制”。國際客流假設：由“2021年恢復複合正增長”調整為“2021 年恢復至 2019 年五成，2022 年基本恢復”。（1）ASK 假設：下調 2020-21 年至 2019 年的-53%/-8%（原-34%/+10%）。（2）座收假設：維持 2020 年同比-18%，下調 2021 年同比至+8%（原+10%）。（3）油價：假設以 8 月末水平持續，全年同比降 30%（原-40%）。（4）貨運收入：上調 2020 年同比至+30%（原-10%）。
疫情不改長期價值提升趨勢。國航以北京/成都/上海/深圳為節點的四角菱形網絡，覆蓋中國公商務活動最密集區域，利潤率長期領跑行業。疫情短期顯著抑制航空需要，但我們相信不會改變中國航空消費滲透趨勢。長期看，首都機場區位優越，國航北京客源將持續優化，疊加票價市場化，時刻價值將充分體現，並將再次獲得批量優質時刻。預計疫情影響結束後，國航將再次展現龍頭效應，並開啟盈利上行。
風險提示。疫情持續，經濟下行，增發攤薄，匯率油價，安全事故。
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