匯豐銀行點評：正榮地產(06158.HK) 最好的仍在路上
● 2020中期業績令人滿意，資產負債表流動性充裕以及債務結構的不斷改善；預計可以完成2020年人民幣1,400億的合約銷售目標
● 抓住美元債融資窗口延長融資年期；匯豐銀行認為其他新房企難以複製這種成功經驗
● 維持增持評級並建議買入正榮地產(06158.HK)美元債
2020中期業績一覽
正榮宣佈了較為滿意的2020中期業績。收入同比增長7％至人民幣145億元，利潤率與2019年持平(即1H20毛利率為20％)。匯豐銀行認為，正榮低於同行的利潤率反映了其快速的資產週轉率，這反過來又有助於其規模擴大，與此同時槓桿率仍然受到控制。特別是，正榮的債務結構不斷改善，其中截至2020年6月信託融資僅佔債務總額的9％，2019年為20％，2016年為60％以上。自2018年1月上市以來，淨負債率一直在下降，現在該指標可與其他“BB”級中國房地產同行相提並論。現金對短債比也在持續提高，到2020年6月已超過2倍。匯豐銀行相信正榮有望實現其人民幣1400億的全年合約銷售目標，2020年前7個月的合約銷售額為人民幣600億。公司通過簽訂利率H/L+410bp的1.41億美元等值銀團貸款拓深了其海外貸款市場，另外8月訂立額外一筆1.56億港元的15個月的貸款。
最好的仍在路上
匯豐銀行認為，正榮成功抓住了過去兩年美元債券融資增量的窗口。正榮通過11支在2021年至2024年之間到期的共30億美元債券建立了完整的美元債券曲線。自2019年7月起發改委限制開發商增加美元債券融資存量，匯豐銀行認為，美元高收益債券領域的新手沒有機會建立完整的債券曲線並獲得與正榮美元債券過去類似的重估，除非國家發改委的政策立場改變。未來幾年，隨着運營效率的提高，盈利能力也將有所提高，考慮到年初至今取得的新項目的權益比在64％，土儲的權益比例應從2020年6月的58％進一步提高。
維持基本面增持評級
考慮到正榮擴大經營規模的同時降槓桿及其多元化的融資渠道，匯豐銀行維持增持評級。
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